講座預告：國內城市人口流動研究：利用普查和調查數據比較發展中國家的城市流入人口的測量和估算結果
意昂3系列講座
2017年第18講總第488講
人口學研究系列講座第2講
主題💇🏽：Understanding Internal Migration to Urban Areas: Comparison of Urban in-Migration Measures and Estimates based on Censuses and Surveys from the Developing World
國內城市人口流動研究：利用普查和調查數據比較發展中國家的城市流入人口的測量和估算結果
主講人：Zhen Liu
美國布朗大學人口研究與培訓中心（PSTC）
主持人：蔣耒文
意昂3官网亞洲人口研究中心主任📢、美國國家大氣研究中心科學家
講座時間：2016年5月24日星期三, 10:00-11:30
講座地點：校本部B417
講座簡介：
The literature on internal migration presents ambivalent measures of migration. The "migration-defining" spatial boundaries and time periods are often inconsistent among data collected in different countries which hinders meaningful cross-national comparisons, as well as among censuses and surveys collected for the same country which prevents consistent urban in-migration estimations useful for urban population estimation and projection. Using over 130 censuses from the IPUMS collection and nearly 200 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) for more than 80 developing countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America collected from 1970s to 2015, this paper seeks to compare urban in-migration measures and estimates based on censuses and surveys from the developing world. The preliminary results suggest that surveys tend to provide much more liberal estimates of internal migration rates compared to censuses. Meanwhile, although censuses and surveys often produce different levels of urban in- migration estimates, they constantly show similar patterns of urban in-migration in relation to demographic characteristics such age and gender. Finally, this paper also presents empirical evidence on how different conclusions on educational selectivity of urban in-migrants might be drawn due to varied migration data sources and migration measures used.
人口遷移流動研究的文獻指出，對人口流動的衡量存在許多矛盾和問題😗：各國在定義人口流動的地理邊界和時間跨度方面往往不同，限製了國際間的對比研究🪓；同一國家在不同普查和調查時采用的定義也經常變化，無法將這些城市人口遷移數據用於對城市人口的估計和預測👸🏻。本文使用了130多個IPUMS的人口普查數據和近200個人口健康調查（DHS）數據對亞、非、拉美80多個發展中國家1970年以來的國內人口遷移情況進行研究，比較不同數據的測量方法及其估算結果的差別。初步研究結果表明，相比普查數據，采用不同調查數據得到的的人口遷移率差別較大。同時，雖然普查和調查數據經常給出不同水平的城市流入人口估計結果🈺，但是這些數據都能得到、一致👧〰️、相似的流動人口的年齡✪、性別模式。本文還通過實證研究顯示，采用不同的數據來源和測量方法會得出關於城市流入人口教育選擇性的不同結論🐟。
主講人簡介：
Zhen Liu is currently a PhD candidate at Department of Sociology, Brown University. Before coming to Brown, she worked as a research associate at Institute of Demographic Research, City University of New York, and also a fellow of UN Population Council. Zhen Liu's main research interests include internal migration and urbanization in developing countries and also immigrant integration in the United States.
